Iran begs Belarus for weapons after Russia says no

Iran has approached Belarus for help rebuilding its battered air defence and electronic warfare systems after the recent conflict with Israel, exposing Moscow's inability to supply even its closest allies. According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, Tehran has asked Minsk for assistance in restoring radar and other conventional deterrence systems destroyed in the June 13-24 war with Israel. A ceasefire was announced on June 24, though both sides continued strikes for several hours afterwards.

Israel has repeatedly targeted Iran's air defence network, striking regome-controlled radar and missile batteries in Syria, Iraq and inside Iran itself. A year ago, coordinated raids knocked out several long-range systems around nuclear facilities, and during the 12-day war this summer Israeli missiles again destroyed large parts of Tehran's radar coverage. The result has left Iran struggling to detect incoming threats, exposing a critical vulnerability.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko met Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Minsk last week. The official agenda focused on trade and investment, but Ukrainian intelligence reported that "behind closed doors" Tehran sought military-technical support.

"Unlike Russia, Belarus is less restricted by sanctions in the military-technical sphere and could become a channel for restoring Iran's defence capabilities," the intelligence statement read.

Analysts say the real significance lies in who is not helping Iran.

For decades, Russia was the principal supplier of air defence and radar technology across the Middle East.

Now, tied down by its war in Ukraine and facing shortages of its own, Moscow appears unable to spare equipment.

"This reflects not so much hostility as incapacity," said Meghan Sutcliffe of the risk consultancy Sibylline. "Russia's focus will be primarily on Ukraine, and of course that drains their capacity.

"The inference is that Iran has enduring strategic partnerships with two major players, Russia and China, and neither is able to help in its time of need."

She added that Tehran is urgently seeking to "reconstitute its capabilities as quickly as possible" to protect nuclear sites and other strategic infrastructure, adding: "but "there is a limitation on how much Russia is actually able to assist on the truncated timeline Iran is seeking."

Belarus, despite its dependence on Moscow, still maintains parts of its own defence industry and has acted as a conduit for weapons in the past.

"Belarus has diversified to an extent and it would not be surprising if it did have systems or equipment to offer to Iran," said Keir Giles of Chatham House.

"But if Russia is unable to supply its long-term customers with one of the mainstays of its arms exports, then that tells us Russia is inadequately supplied for its own defence. It simply doesn't have surplus capacity."

The decision also suggests Minsk consulted Moscow before entertaining Tehran's request.

"It's highly unlikely Belarus would engage in action that Russia had not given at least tacit consent for," Sutcliffe noted.

Belarus's ability to part with radar or air defence kit remains in doubt.

"The Russians have provided a number of systems to Belarus to augment their pretty limited capability," said Alexander Lord, also of Sibylline.

"One has to ask, if Belarus has spares to offer Iran, perhaps the Russians would have already asked for them first. They have lost significant air defence assets themselves."

Beyond military gear, Iran is also reported to be seeking Belarusian help to address shortages of power generation equipment and agricultural machinery - another sign of how Minsk may be used as a back channel to circumvent sanctions.

The episode highlights how Russia's war in Ukraine is reshaping global arms flows. Once able to flood partners with surplus Soviet kit, Moscow is now struggling to keep its own forces supplied.

For Iran, that means turning to secondary suppliers such as Belarus, and possibly China, in a bid to patch up its air defence network.

For Russia, it underscores a loss of prestige: an ally that has provided drones and missiles for its Ukraine campaign now cannot count on Moscow for reciprocal support.

"Ultimately this shows that the cupboard is bare," said Giles.

"Russia can no longer arm its friends without weakening its own war effort."

Even if Lukashenko were inclined to oblige Tehran, analysts doubt Minsk has much to offer.

"The Belarusians have pretty limited capability of their own," said Alexander Lord of Sibylline.

"If they really had spare air defence or radar systems, Russia would likely have claimed them already."