Kuwait's population falls to 4.88 million in 2025: Expat numbers see sudden decline, while nationals grow

Kuwait has begun 2025 with a subtle but significant demographic shift: its total population fell to 4.88 million, driven by a decline in expatriates, while nationals grew to 32.1% of residents. Officials say new labour policies, visa reforms, and workforce localisation are reshaping the Gulf’s labour landscape, signaling broader economic and social changes across the region.

Figures released by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show Kuwait’s population sliding from 4,913,271 in early 2024 to 4,881,254 in 2025, a 0.65% decrease. Expatriates bore the brunt of this decline, falling 1.56% to 3,315,086, while Kuwaiti nationals grew 1.32% to 1,566,168, their highest share since the mid-2010s.

Policies driving the shift
The shift coincides with a wave of measures reshaping Kuwait’s labour landscape:

• Unified visa fees: Mid-2025 reforms scrapped exemptions and set a standard KD 150 fee for all work-permit transfers, levelling costs across sectors.

• Exit-permit rules: From July, private-sector expatriates must obtain an employer-approved electronic permit before leaving the country.
• Education jobs overhaul: The Ministry of Education has begun replacing foreign teachers in non-specialised subjects with Kuwaitis, part of a broader localisation drive.

CSB analysts note that such steps, combined with steady public-sector hiring and generous family policies, help explain why nationals grew even as the overall population contracted.

A wider gulf story

Across the GCC, similar recalibrations are under way. Saudi Arabia is tightening “Saudisation” quotas while luring skilled migrants to its giga-projects. The UAE is pairing Golden Visas for specialists with Emiratisation targets in the private sector. Oman has locked in citizen-only rules for dozens of job categories.

Kuwait’s modest contraction therefore reads less as an anomaly and more as part of a Gulf-wide “smart growth” strategy trimming low-wage inflows, retaining high-value expertise, and giving locals a stronger footing.

Business and social impact

For employers, the challenge is to adapt without losing momentum. Restaurants and logistics firms report slimmer hiring pools; engineers and healthcare operators worry about retaining senior talent as other Gulf hubs beckon.

Yet the same numbers hint at opportunity: a youthful Kuwaiti base nearly half under 30, according to CSB could energise sectors from tech to tourism if training and wages keep pace.

Social planners, meanwhile, are weighing the implications for housing, transport and schools as citizens take a larger share of services traditionally stretched by a huge expatriate presence.

Beyond headcount

The real significance of Kuwait’s 2025 bulletin lies in what it says about the future Gulf social contract: one where economic resilience matters as much as rapid growth, and where every new resident citizen or expatriate must fit a longer-term vision.

If the trend holds, Kuwait’s demographic correction may be the first chapter in a Gulf-wide rethink of prosperity and population.